By Judith Akolo

The Kenya Meteorological Department says the current heavy rainfall of more than 20mm in 24 hours being experienced over several parts of the country is expected to continue from 25th to 28th February 2026.

In a statement the Weatherman says, the rainfall, ”is likely to spread to parts of Northeastern Kenya, says the Acting Director of Kenya Meteorological Department, Edward Muriuki and adds that, “The intensity is projected to decrease by 1st March 2026 over the Southeastern lowlands, the Coastal region, and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi City County.”

He notes that, “heavy rainfall of more than 20mm within 24 hours is expected to persist over the Lake Victoria Basin and the Highlands West of the Rift Valley until 3rd March 2026.”

The Weatherman is urging for caution in the Counties of: Migori, Nyamira, Bugoma, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, West Pokot, Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet. The others include: Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Kisii, Kericho, Bomet, Kiambu, Embu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia, TharakaNithi, Meru, Nairobi, Narok, Kajiado, Makueni, Machakos, Taita-Taveta, Kitui, Kwale, Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi and parts of Isiolo, Marsabit and Garissa.

Muriuki is urging residents in all the mentioned areas advised to be on the lookout for potential floods, flash floods and poor visibility. “Flood waters may appear in places where it has not rained heavily, especially downstream,” he says and adds, “People are advised to avoid driving through or walking in moving water or open fields and not to shelter under trees and near grilled windows to minimize exposure to lightning strikes.”

In an update on the long rains season of March, April to May, the Meteorological Department says indications suggest that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is likely to transition to less favourable phases from mid-March, “which may result in a reduction in rainfall amounts and an increased likelihood of dry spells, as the convective environment becomes suppressed over some regions.”

The Weatherman says that the March, April to May 2026 Long Rains onset has been realized from mid-February over western, central and highland regions, including Nairobi, the South-eastern Lowlands and South Coast experienced  the onset in the fourth week of February, while the Northwestern and North-eastern regions are expected to experience onset between late March and early April.

The North Coast is likely to experience a delayed onset in mid April, despite intermittent early-season rainfall, says the Weatherman in the seasonal update.